Why China will never defeat USA

In these decades, the growth of China economy is so robust so that people will take a bet that China will defeat USA in the near future. The article is an example of the article who said it https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/new-chart-shows-china-gdp-could-overtake-us-sooner-as-covid-took-its-toll.html

But, in the contrary, I think China will never beat USA in the economy. The most reason in my mind is the population in China will decrease in the next decades.

As we back to a few decades ago, China stipulated a regulation that made difficulty for the Chinese to have more than one child. (“One Child policy).

  • 1979, China’s population trends have over the years been largely shaped by the onechild policy, which was introduced in 1979 to slow population growth. Families that violated the rules faced fines, loss of employment and sometimes forced abortions. The onechild policy also led to a severe gender imbalance in the country. (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57303592)

As we back to 90’s, the booming period of China economy was started. The reason of the miracle in Chinese economy is the amount of the population. In China, every product is mass production productions. Even the product is for a small city, it is for a few millions buyers. Because of this situation, the price of any product becomes lower until now. Because the products in China is so cheap, they can easily export the products. They can compete against any country in the world.

But, the results of one child policy gives effects in current days. The population is decreasing. Now, a husband of 40s age needs to become breadwinner for 7 – 8 persons.

  1. Father
  2. Mother
  3. Father in law
  4. Mother in law
  5. Wife
  6. Himself
  7. Child (ren)

Thus this situation is very hard for the family. By realizing this, Chinese government introduce 3 child policy. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-05/china-three-child-policy-younger-generation-lie-flat/100190514.

However, I am sure that this program will be useless because the millennials surely think that they can not afford having 3 children.\

As the final result, China economy will start decreasing when the Gen X is growing old which will happen in the 2030.in 2030, the gen x will become 50 yo and they will less spend while the next generation is lesser in amount than gen x. the baby boomer will perish, and the decreasing of China economy will be happened.

Japan Population growth vs Economic growth

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Heba-Abbadi-2/publication/335821587/figure/fig11/AS:803096955453443@1568484643971/JAPAN-YEARLY-POPULATION-GROWTH-RATE-SOURCE-WORLD-METERS-INFO.ppm

VS

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Rafael-Gomez-19/publication/256053544/figure/fig2/AS:712852616777729@1546968716836/Real-GDP-Growth-Japan-1960-2011.png

China Population growth vs Economic growth

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